Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3F 0x3ffe…e125 world 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,502 (+8%) realized +$21,122 · open −$620
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate87%149W / 23L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,444per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$13,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$264
14 days−$1,373
30 days−$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$4,638
politics 31% +$10,043
other 12% +$3,185
economics 2% +$514
sports 1% −$199
tech 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +16.3% +5.2% 88% 62% -3.2%
≤30d 36 +12.5% +1.8% 78% 61% -12.6%
≤90d 165 +31.2% +18.7% 86% 33% -3.1%
all 172 +34.4% +21.6% 87% 35% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 35% -2.8%
10% +10.0% 21% -12.1%
15% ← realistic here -0.7% 15% -20.6%
20% -10.4% 10% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,047) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$429 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$13,060
Realized+$21,122
Unrealized−$620
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses149 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions17
Markets (closed)172 / 189
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$1,444
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $3,390 $3,620 +$230 (+7%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,925 $3,041 +$116 (+4%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 66¢ 79¢ $1,239 $1,483 +$244 (+20%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 77¢ 86¢ $1,309 $1,470 +$162 (+12%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $1,078 $1,120 +$42 (+4%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 66¢ 83¢ $653 $826 +$173 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 90¢ $297 $358 +$61 (+21%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $204 $223 +$19 (+10%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 80¢ 80¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $172 $179 +$7 (+4%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 44¢ 4¢ $1,854 $165 −$1,689 (-91%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $121 $115 −$6 (-5%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $78 $88 +$10 (+13%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 58¢ 73¢ $58 $73 +$15 (+26%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 54¢ 66¢ $49 $59 +$10 (+21%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $44 $31 −$13 (-30%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $113 +$93 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$76 +38%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $735 −$282 -38%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $517 +$48 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $301 +$52 +17%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $100 +$63 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$49 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $177 +$32 +18%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$14 -55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $170 +$30 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,127 −$2,127 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,153 +$426 +37%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 +$60 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$22 +7%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$170 +56%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $109 −$79 -72%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $66 −$22 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $86 +$14 +16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$47 +173%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $1,418 +$196 +14%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 01 $707 +$155 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $135 +$131 +97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $362 +$196 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,512 −$463 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $382 +$42 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,582 +$63 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $885 +$231 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $280 +$120 +43%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $639 +$432 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $755 +$45 +6%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 23 $544 +$14 +3%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 23 $99 +$7 +7%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $519 +$44 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $503 +$97 +19%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $995 +$19 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 +$10 +32%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $395 +$5 +1%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 18 $392 +$8 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $135 +$63 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 15 $2,395 +$71 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 80¢ $201 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $101 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $58 8h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 8h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 8h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? SELL No 84¢ $1 20h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? SELL No 84¢ $254 34h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? SELL No 84¢ $306 34h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 86¢ $430 36h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $396 36h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 37h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 8¢ $56 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $201 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $202 47h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $850 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,660 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,060.20 · official $13,060.20 (match) · 3500 history records