Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3ffd…a020 crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%105W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$15
14 days+$28
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 105 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 105 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 105 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses105 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage19d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records