Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3ff8…f1ac world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$4
politics 24% +$1
sports 16% $0
other 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +1.5% -8.1% 58% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 12 +1.5% -8.1% 58% 0% -8.5%
all 41 +0.2% -9.3% 37% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.05 per $1 lost it wins $5.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage289d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $44 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $39 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $13 +$1 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $3 $0 -1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 21 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 18 $4 $0 -11%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $33 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $44 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $7 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $7 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $44 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 59¢ $44 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $17 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $28 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $13 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $2 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $12 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $32 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $23 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $24 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records