Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3ff8…5fd6
sports · 56 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$911 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,288 · open +$2,967
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,611
Realized−$2,288
Unrealized+$2,967
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions17
Markets (closed)39 / 56
History coverage18d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 17 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,171
7 days−$4,171
14 days−$4,839
30 days−$2,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 19¢ 64¢ $475 $1,587 +$1,112 (+234%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $1,380 $1,410 +$30 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 37¢ 78¢ $629 $1,334 +$706 (+112%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1,340 $1,320 −$20 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 52¢ $350 $1,312 +$962 (+275%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $818 $1,000 +$182 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 27¢ $125 $664 +$539 (+431%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $650 $655 +$5 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $21 −$13 (-38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $545 $16 −$529 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 12 $305 +$194 +64%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,997 −$1,997 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $722 −$722 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 12 $312 −$157 -50%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $776 +$794 +102%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $57 +$277 +485%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Co Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $372 −$372 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $360 −$360 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $283 −$283 -100%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $51 −$13 -25%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $12 +$5 +43%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $265 −$265 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,146 +$354 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,060 +$395 +37%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $131 −$131 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $474 −$248 -52%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $106 −$106 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $350 +$161 +46%
Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 01 $393 +$307 +78%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 01 $577 +$422 +73%
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 01 $450 +$549 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $390 −$379 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $380 −$283 -74%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 01 $211 +$87 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $222 −$216 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $860 −$846 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $660 −$396 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $129 −$120 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $151 −$151 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $199 +$447 +225%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $384 −$384 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $395 −$395 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,727 +$3,034 +176%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% −$3,197
world 30% +$3,585
other 26% +$291
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 34m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 41m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 50m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 55m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 59m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $105 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $43 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $650 4h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 26h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $0 26h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 27h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 28h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $74 28h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $74 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 29h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -64.2% -67.6% 22% 11% -87.3%
≤30d 39 -18.4% -26.1% 36% 33% -21.4%
≤90d 39 -18.4% -26.1% 36% 33% -21.4%
all 39 -18.4% -26.1% 36% 33% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 33% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 33% -28.9%
15% -39.7% 31% -35.8%
20% -45.6% 21% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,611.29 · official $9,611.29 (match) · 601 history records