Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3F 0x3ff3…88e9 crypto 850 markets active 4h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$720 (+7%) realized +$720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%438W / 412L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$44
14 days+$56
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +4.3% -5.7% 54% 54% -2.7%
≤30d 261 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 49% -6.8%
≤90d 824 +9.6% -0.8% 52% 49% -4.2%
all 850 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 49% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 49% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 44% -13.6%
15% -19.3% 38% -21.9%
20% -27.2% 33% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses438 / 412
Open positions0
Markets (closed)850 / 850
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 850 Trades
no open positions (204 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$12 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$10 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$80 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$13 +476%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$31 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$11 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records