Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3ff1…1be9 sports 459 markets active 2d ago coverage 55d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$31 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate69%297W / 135L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$179
14 days−$289
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$163
sports 26% −$103
crypto 21% +$13
world 11% +$64
politics 6% +$40
finance 2% +$10
weather 2% +$5
culture 2% −$23
tech 1% +$12
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -5.9% -14.9% 76% 58% -15.7%
≤30d 307 -2.8% -12.1% 66% 49% -13.9%
≤90d 432 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 49% -8.1%
all 432 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 49% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 49% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 19% -16.9%
15% -24.3% 6% -24.9%
20% -31.7% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses297 / 135
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions28
Markets (closed)432 / 459
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No 93¢ 100¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+7%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 82¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 78¢ 76¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 82¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$3 (+21%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 90¢ 73¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-19%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 78¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 84¢ 86¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 88¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$12 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$4 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +22%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 +$4 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$5 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +30%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 +$12 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 +$12 +20%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$4 +21%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $17 +$5 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +19%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $26 +$4 +16%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 +$14 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 +$3 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $45 +$15 +34%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$6 +34%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 2d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 2d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 81¢ $4 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 72¢ $4 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 80¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $4 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $4 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $4 2d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 91¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 74¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.58 · official $353.58 (match) · 3500 history records