Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fed…0a07 other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 21% −$17
politics 8% −$8
culture 7% −$6
economics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage138d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $336 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $493 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $347 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $583 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $419 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $355 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $421 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $386 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $534 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $734 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $822 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $408 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $650 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $316 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $418 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $988 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $414 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 01 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $567 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 5h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $64 8h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 10h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 11h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 16h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 18h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 20h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 24h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 25h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 26h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 30h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 31h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 35h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 42h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 45h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.26 · official $63.26 (match) · 1420 history records