Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3fec…728e crypto 314 markets active 4h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 208d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,459 (+2%) realized +$10,454 · open −$995
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate74%224W / 80L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,893per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$7,196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$119
14 days+$7,528
30 days+$11,946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 25% +$3,207
politics 24% +$3,978
world 23% +$7,567
other 17% +$1,226
sports 5% −$2,100
economics 3% +$103
culture 1% −$574
finance 1% +$61
tech 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 0% -2.6%
≤30d 40 +11.8% +1.2% 82% 25% -1.1%
≤90d 133 +2.7% -7.1% 83% 15% -6.7%
all 304 +2.3% -7.5% 74% 20% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 20% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 11% -16.1%
15% -24.4% 7% -24.2%
20% -31.8% 6% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,705) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$199 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$7,196
Realized+$10,454
Unrealized−$995
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses224 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions10
Markets (closed)304 / 314
History coverage209d ⚠
Avg bet$1,893
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $4,600 $4,980 +$380 (+8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $810 $805 −$5 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 35¢ $1,512 $661 −$850 (-56%)
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 100¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $195 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 99¢ $174 $199 +$25 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $126 $77 −$49 (-39%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 28¢ $61 $28 −$33 (-53%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-67%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ $54 $1 −$53 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 28 $725 +$36 +5%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $455 +$45 +10%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $383 +$38 +10%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $807 +$135 +17%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $1,710 +$272 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $1,606 $0 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,970 +$30 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? Jun 18 $2,806 +$52 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $40 +$5 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,449 +$1,227 +85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $14,674 +$5,631 +38%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $340 +$57 +17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 15 $860 −$50 -6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 15 $1,618 +$108 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $2,850 +$120 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Jun 15 $963 −$28 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $447 +$453 +101%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $1,820 +$60 +3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 14 $152 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $1,878 +$76 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 13 $1,976 +$13 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 11 $478 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $81 −$21 -26%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $3,114 +$35 +1%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $2,940 −$1,462 -50%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $5,179 +$227 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $4,995 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3,992 +$8 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $1,396 −$869 -62%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $33,900 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 06 $93 +$4 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17,713 +$2,061 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $993 +$7 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $5,546 +$3,618 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $994 +$6 +1%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $185 $0 +0%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $1,667 +$2 +0%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $1,004 +$1 +0%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $4,109 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $17 +$33 +194%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? May 30 $1,004 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $880 +$10 +1%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? May 30 $1,708 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $1,137 +$13 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $996 +$4 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $393 +$7 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $420 +$11 +3%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 26 $995 +$4 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? May 25 $49 +$40 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $38 4h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $100 4h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $100 5h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $2,265 9h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $250 18h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $14 19h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 100¢ $761 27h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 95¢ $725 35h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $2,994 2d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $2,994 2d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $2,994 2d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $1,996 2d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 2d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $1,996 2d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 2d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 39¢ $154 2d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $59 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $810 3d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 3d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 3d
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Team Liquid Academy 91¢ $188 4d
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Team Liquid Academy 91¢ $187 4d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 17¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 79¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 79¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 79¢ $22 4d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 79¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 79¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $78 4d
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Team Liquid Academy 91¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,196.43 · official $7,196.17 (match) · 3500 history records