Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fe5…8e3d crypto 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,344 (-23%) realized −$12,344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%52W / 116L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$11,254
world 15% −$1,680
sports 4% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -53.8% -58.2% 40% 20% -12.6%
≤30d 37 +7.4% -2.8% 32% 30% -22.4%
≤90d 134 -17.1% -25.0% 31% 28% -35.4%
all 168 -4.0% -13.1% 31% 29% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 29% -32.5%
10% -21.4% 27% -39.0%
15% -29.0% 24% -44.9%
20% -36.0% 22% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$211 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses52 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage96d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $2,003 +$101 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $154 +$40 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 03 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$43 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $52 +$52 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 03 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $53 +$101 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $106 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $117 +$176 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $115 +$243 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $104 +$53 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $207 +$212 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $105 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 14 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 14 $200 −$187 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 14 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $769 −$312 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 14 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 14 $100 −$94 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $107 −$99 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 05 $7,146 −$3,786 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 05 $100 −$93 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,104 32m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $2,003 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $32 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $64 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $45 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $154 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $53 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $70 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $50 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 445 history records