Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fe3…5c34 tech 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$3
tech 21% +$11
politics 19% −$3
economics 17% −$2
finance 11% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 5 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +0.7% -8.9% 23% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$536) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage187d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 25 $110 +$5 +5%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $109 +$2 +2%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 18 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $727 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $726 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $730 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $112 +$1 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $535 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 19 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $536 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 17 $537 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $33 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 20 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 18 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 23 $27 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $116 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $110 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 14d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $109 14d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $110 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $109 35d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $722 38d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $723 38d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $722 38d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $723 38d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $725 38d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $726 38d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $726 38d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $727 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $727 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $728 38d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $725 38d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $726 38d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $729 38d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $730 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $112 63d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $531 66d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $532 66d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $532 66d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $533 66d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $533 66d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $533 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records