Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3fe1…5b09 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$125 (+28%) realized +$127 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$47
sports 46% +$71
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +47.4% +33.3% 100% 100% +42.6%
≤30d 2 +47.4% +33.3% 100% 100% +42.6%
≤90d 7 +41.4% +28.0% 57% 57% +35.1%
all 8 +44.2% +30.5% 62% 62% +35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 62% +35.2%
10% +18.0% 50% +22.2%
15% +6.6% 50% +10.4%
20% -3.9% 50% -0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$19 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage94d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$9 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $18 +$74 +413%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 +$16 +82%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $71 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $48 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 17h
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 69d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 70d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 70d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 70d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 19¢ $5 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 71d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 71d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.30 · official $198.30 (match) · 21 history records