Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fde…c9ca crypto 1719 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$54 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%1576W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day72.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$53
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$57
weather 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 1703 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 2% -10.0%
≤90d 1703 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 2% -10.0%
all 1703 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 2% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1576 / 127
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1703 / 1719
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day72.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 99¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.39 · official $76.39 (match) · 3500 history records