Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3fde…75f9
crypto · 739 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses382 / 356
Open positions1
Markets (closed)738 / 739
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day74.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 738 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$62
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 52¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 365 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 49% -14.9%
≤30d 738 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 52% -10.0%
≤90d 738 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 52% -10.0%
all 738 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 52% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 52% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 52% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 52% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 51% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.37 · official $3.88 (match) · 1206 history records