Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3fdb…0060 other 12 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$141 (-3%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$4
crypto 37% +$2
sports 3% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 33% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 33% 0% -11.9%
all 12 -8.4% -17.1% 33% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 0% -11.9%
10% -25.0% 0% -20.3%
15% -32.3% 0% -28.0%
20% -38.9% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage12d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $502 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $828 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $483 −$1 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $244 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $550 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $480 43h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $481 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $502 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $419 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $420 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $345 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $345 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $143 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $509 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $195 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $244 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records