Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3fd8…a3a5 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$227 (+4%) realized +$170 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$75
sports 13% +$207
crypto 7% −$104
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 41% -0.7%
≤30d 22 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 41% -0.7%
≤90d 22 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 41% -0.7%
all 22 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 41% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.9% 41% -0.7%
10% +13.9% 41% -10.2%
15% +2.9% 41% -18.9%
20% -7.2% 36% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$48 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5,004
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions26
Markets (closed)22 / 48
History coverage6d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $800 $917 +$117 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $850 $692 −$158 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $500 $662 +$162 (+32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $400 $595 +$195 (+49%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $550 $418 −$132 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $400 $317 −$83 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $250 $272 +$22 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $250 $202 −$48 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $118 $113 −$5 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $55 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $88 +$112 +126%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 +$40 +37%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 −$28 -36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 +$153 +325%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$73 +287%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$86 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$44 -87%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $51 −$2 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$40 +78%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$23 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 22h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $411 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $411 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,003.65 · official $5,003.67 (match) · 85 history records