Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fd4…e413 weather 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%157W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$10
other 3% −$2
sports 2% −$4
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 33 -0.7% -10.1% 88% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 121 -0.6% -10.1% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 176 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses157 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)176 / 179
History coverage132d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? No 100¢ 39¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? No 100¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 28 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 20? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 20? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 65°F or below on May 19 May 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 15? May 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 11? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $85 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $91 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $92 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $91 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $92 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $88 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $93 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $94 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $48 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $48 12d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $91 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $88 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $93 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $88 16d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $91 17d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $72 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.53 · official $13.53 (match) · 514 history records