Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T00:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fd3…92f9 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-28%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -33.7%
≤30d 32 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -33.7%
≤90d 32 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -33.7%
all 32 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 44% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 41% -40.1%
15% -39.7% 41% -45.8%
20% -45.6% 41% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$33 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$25 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$27 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$28 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$31 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$34 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$30 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$39 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$97 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$26 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$17 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $95 +$19 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$32 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $27 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $41 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $50 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $100 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records