Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3F 0x3fd3…30c5 other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$798 (+7%) realized +$748 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%62W / 52L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$198
world 31% +$608
culture 21% +$88
sports 3% −$34
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$4
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 57% -25.6%
≤30d 7 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 57% -25.6%
≤90d 63 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 43% -0.4%
all 114 -2.9% -12.1% 54% 39% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 39% -2.9%
10% -20.6% 19% -12.2%
15% -28.2% 17% -20.7%
20% -35.3% 13% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$748
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses62 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage190d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$18 +69%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$10 +38%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 10 $78 −$77 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $40 +$38 +97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $27 −$27 -98%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $27 $0 -1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $22 +$5 +20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $17 −$1 -5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$7 +67%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $56 −$26 -47%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 −$13 -63%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 02 $34 −$15 -44%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 02 $16 −$16 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 02 $128 −$9 -7%
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch? May 01 $494 −$167 -34%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 01 $213 −$20 -10%
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? May 01 $501 +$3 +1%
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? May 01 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 01 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit? May 01 $15 +$5 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,338 +$408 +17%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 30 $2,124 +$84 +4%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $413 +$23 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Apr 27 $76 −$28 -37%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 27 $10 +$9 +88%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1,006 +$123 +12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 24 $10 $0 -2%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $622 +$428 +69%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 22 $8 $0 +5%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 22 $314 +$314 +100%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 22 $156 +$114 +73%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 20 $177 −$117 -66%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $18 −$2 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $104 +$72 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Apr 19 $71 +$12 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 18 $13 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $24 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 20¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 48¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $49 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $36 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $26 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $25 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $15 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 27h
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 55¢ $78 38d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $78 38d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $40 38d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 83¢ $30 38d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $14 39d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL No 100¢ $13 39d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 76¢ $10 39d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Manchester City FC 50¢ $27 44d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 62¢ $27 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 44d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $27 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 83¢ $26 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 44d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 51¢ $10 45d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 69¢ $17 45d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 394 history records