Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3F 0x3fd1…1355 sports 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+1%) realized +$251 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%349W / 23L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$40
14 days−$123
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$196
other 10% +$57
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$6
tech 0% −$7
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 44 -3.3% -12.5% 95% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 145 +5.8% -4.3% 98% 1% -9.0%
all 372 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses349 / 23
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)372 / 373
History coverage472d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 98¢ 100¢ $471 $477 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $466 +$5 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $462 +$5 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $457 +$5 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $453 +$5 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $444 +$9 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $203 +$4 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $209 +$2 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $196 +$2 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $194 +$2 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $201 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $197 +$4 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $190 +$4 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $193 +$4 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $188 +$2 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $191 +$2 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $186 −$186 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $184 +$2 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $187 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 09 $185 +$2 +1%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $186 +$4 +2%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $183 +$2 +1%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $184 +$2 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $180 +$4 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $181 +$4 +2%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 05 $178 +$2 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $179 +$2 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $176 +$2 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $176 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $175 +$2 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $175 +$2 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $104 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $220 +$2 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $226 +$2 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $217 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $222 +$4 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $214 +$3 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 28 $217 +$4 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $212 +$2 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 27 $216 +$2 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $210 +$2 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 26 $208 +$2 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 24 $179 +$2 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 23 $211 +$3 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $205 +$3 +1%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 20 $347 +$3 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $205 +$4 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 20 $28 $0 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $202 +$2 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $203 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $352 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 98¢ $45 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 97¢ $74 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $466 26h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $452 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 98¢ $9 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $92 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $28 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $332 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $5 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $453 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $222 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 97¢ $222 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 98¢ $203 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $209 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $196 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $194 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $201 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 98¢ $190 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 98¢ $197 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 98¢ $193 8d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 99¢ $188 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 99¢ $186 10d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $191 10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $184 11d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $187 11d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 12d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 12d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $185 13d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Athletics 98¢ $186 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.09 · official $477.09 (match) · 846 history records