Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3F 0x3fd1…d2a9 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+7%) realized +$11 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.1% +17.7% 71% 71% +24.6%
≤30d 7 +30.1% +17.7% 71% 71% +24.6%
≤90d 7 +30.1% +17.7% 71% 71% +24.6%
all 7 +30.1% +17.7% 71% 71% +24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 71% +24.6%
10% +6.4% 57% +12.7%
15% -3.8% 57% +1.8%
20% -13.3% 57% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 45¢ 24¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$29 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$14 +134%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $6 +$4 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $9 17m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $59 22m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $8 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $24 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 45¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 38¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 28¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 81¢ $18 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 52¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $6 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 37¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 82¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $6.10 · 22 history records