Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fcd…d719 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-14%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$15
crypto 21% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 33% -20.7%
≤30d 14 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 36% -25.1%
≤90d 14 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 36% -25.1%
all 14 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 36% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 36% -25.1%
10% -27.6% 36% -32.2%
15% -34.6% 29% -38.8%
20% -41.0% 21% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage19d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$8 -75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $8 +$8 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records