Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fcc…9f91 sports 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$10,481 (+2%) realized +$10,491 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +214% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +118% what you keep after slip
Net edge+118%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%110W / 121L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$3,435per market
Trades / day75.5pace
Fees−$2,355est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,381
7 days+$6,920
14 days+$10,565
30 days+$12,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$3,947
politics 38% $0
crypto 2% +$29
other 0% +$436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+183.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +182.5% +155.6% 38% 28% -8.8%
≤30d 162 +194.0% +166.0% 45% 31% -9.1%
≤90d 231 +213.8% +183.9% 48% 33% -10.1%
all 231 +213.8% +183.9% 48% 33% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +183.9% 33% -10.1%
10% +156.7% 30% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here +131.9% 26% -26.5%
20% +109.2% 24% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +214% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +199% → late +228% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$135 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,491
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses110 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,355
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 191
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$3,435
Trades / day75.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Team Vitality 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $45 +$20 +44%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$49 +340%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $135 −$168 -124%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$7 +50%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoff Jun 19 $47 −$10 -21%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Pcific Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Gro Jun 19 $9 +$2,767 +30283%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff Jun 19 $1 +$340 +25432%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Play Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs Jun 19 $143 −$292 -204%
Valorant: VARREL vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Jun 19 $10 −$106 -1059%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $63 −$64 -102%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$15 -502%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs TEC Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Pcific Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$9 -33%
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$5 -68%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Grou Jun 19 $26 −$50 -193%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$19 -154%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $22 −$22 -101%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$100 -109%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$29 +210%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 19 $4 +$128 +2933%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $354 +$848 +240%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 19 $34 −$34 -99%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$35 -744%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$4 -82%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 +$9 +400%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$23 +290%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Jun 19 $9 +$170 +1976%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs TEC Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: VARREL vs ZETA DIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $797 −$29 -4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $16,296 +$108 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $233,626 $0 -0%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $16,669 +$222 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,152 +$329 +28%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $723 +$312 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 1¢ $5 15m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 1¢ $4 15m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 1¢ $0 16m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 1¢ $1 16m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 59¢ $174 23m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $2 46m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $52 46m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $6 46m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $41 46m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $462 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $100 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $239 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $25 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $75 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $210 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $39 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $104 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $28 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $22 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $372 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $122 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 99¢ $52 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $36 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $62 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $18 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $80 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 99¢ $144 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 3500 history records