trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET | Jun 12 | $7,998 | +$42 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET | Jun 12 | $6,788 | +$15 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 12 | $8,693 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 12 | $8,683 | −$11 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $8,681 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | Jun 11 | $8,707 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont | May 26 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Apr | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 26 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi | Apr 04 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) | Apr 04 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 04 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Mar 08 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Mar 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Feb 16 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 16 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? | Feb 16 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 13 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 3? | Dec 03 | $7,157 | +$17 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? | Dec 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 13? | Dec 03 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 67% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 73% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 25 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 84% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -8.2% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -16.9% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -33.3% |