Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fcc…8ab6 crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$334 (-9%) realized −$358 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$317
other 12% −$44
culture 6% +$33
sports 4% −$25
world 2% −$17
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -18.1% -25.9% 67% 67% -33.9%
≤90d 32 -26.2% -33.2% 34% 34% -42.6%
all 75 +6.2% -3.9% 45% 43% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 43% -20.3%
10% -13.1% 35% -27.9%
15% -21.5% 31% -34.9%
20% -29.2% 31% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$38 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$358
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage167d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $105 $129 +$24 (+23%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$5 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 02 $217 −$215 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 02 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 02 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 31 $126 +$180 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 31 $59 −$41 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 31 $67 +$59 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 31 $37 +$30 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 31 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 31 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 31 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 31 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 31 $18 +$18 +100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 31 $60 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 31 $33 +$58 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 31 $29 +$37 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 31 $13 +$16 +125%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $2 $0 -1%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $32 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 31 $19 −$17 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 31 $67 +$23 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 30 $2 +$2 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 30 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 30 $40 +$50 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 30 $48 +$40 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 30 $53 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 29 $41 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 29 $248 −$248 -100%
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? Mar 29 $3 −$2 -48%
Deel IPO before 2027? Mar 29 $3 $0 +10%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $6 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Mar 29 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 29 $3 +$17 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 27 $165 +$135 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 27 $54 −$21 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 27 $56 −$20 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 27 $12 +$18 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 85¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $110 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $126 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $171 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $43 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $8 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.26 · official $254.26 (match) · 494 history records