Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3fca…c922 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$524 (+52%) realized +$499 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$637
sports 33% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +45.8% +31.9% 25% 25% +65.0%
≤30d 12 +45.8% +31.9% 25% 25% +65.0%
≤90d 12 +45.8% +31.9% 25% 25% +65.0%
all 12 +45.8% +31.9% 25% 25% +65.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.9% 25% +65.0%
10% +19.3% 25% +49.2%
15% +7.8% 25% +34.8%
20% -2.8% 25% +21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +114% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$318 vs −$43 · ×7.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$499
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 26¢ $200 $280 +$80 (+40%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-42%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-64%)
Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists Yes 18¢ 12¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 4¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $204 +$282 +138%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$487 +948%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$187 +363%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 22m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $102 39m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 99¢ $485 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 97¢ $538 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 29¢ $238 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.60 · official $322.21 (match) · 21 history records