Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fca…7afb crypto 317 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$137 (-0%) realized −$138 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate66%206W / 107L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$563per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$148
sports 0% +$7
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.5% -15.4% 88% 12% -8.3%
≤30d 8 -6.5% -15.4% 88% 12% -8.3%
≤90d 8 -6.5% -15.4% 88% 12% -8.3%
all 313 -4.1% -13.2% 66% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 2% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses206 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)313 / 317
History coverage136d
Avg bet$563
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 97¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals No 78¢ 81¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $300 +$4 +1%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $310 +$6 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? Jun 27 $304 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $135 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? Jun 26 $156 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on March 14? Mar 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on March 14? Mar 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $75 on March 14? Mar 15 $672 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on March 14? Mar 15 $799 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 14? Mar 14 $10,032 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $10,022 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 12? Mar 12 $7,834 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 12? Mar 12 $7,181 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 11? Mar 12 $3,798 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 11? Mar 12 $4,248 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 10? Mar 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 10? Mar 11 $1,102 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $338 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $10,001 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 8? Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 8? Mar 08 $5,275 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 7? Mar 08 $1,544 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $8,523 +$17 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $4,990 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 5? Mar 06 $4,653 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $5,319 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $38 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 4? Mar 04 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $6,986 +$14 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $10,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $2,712 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 03 $6,030 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 03 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $10,041 +$10 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? Mar 01 $149 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 28 $57 −$41 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 28 $188 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $130 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 97¢ $140 2h
Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $24 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 AND Jor BUY 88¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 13h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $257 15h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $53 15h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $310 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $210 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $99 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $182 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $78 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $304 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $87 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $9 28h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $57 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $0 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 28h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 28h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.