Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3fca…c236
sports · 534 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$210 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$210 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses325 / 208
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)533 / 534
History coverage47d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 533 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 $0 -24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$114
crypto 10% −$71
weather 5% −$14
other 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 10¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 48¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 75¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 8¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 9¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 34¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $1 6h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 10¢ $0 6h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 58¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 6¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 83¢ $1 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $1 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 63% -13.2%
≤30d 392 -5.8% -14.7% 61% 57% -18.9%
≤90d 533 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 54% -18.3%
all 533 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 54% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 54% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 38% -26.1%
15% -28.0% 25% -33.3%
20% -35.1% 15% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 1289 history records