Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3fc7…62b9 sports 617 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,219 (+7%) realized +$10,298 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%329W / 287L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$4,194est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,533
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.1% -5.0% 45% 45% -16.5%
≤30d 110 -14.7% -22.9% 45% 37% -13.8%
≤90d 616 -9.7% -18.3% 53% 34% -6.7%
all 616 -9.7% -18.3% 53% 34% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 34% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 25% -15.6%
15% -33.3% 22% -23.7%
20% -39.8% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$87 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,298
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses329 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$4,194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)616 / 617
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 616 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs ECHO 44¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $57 +$109 +190%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $193 +$147 +76%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $159 −$157 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $205 −$205 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $18 +$20 +110%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $97 +$84 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $157 +$163 +104%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $121 −$119 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $106 −$10 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $196 +$274 +140%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $255 +$374 +147%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $93 −$45 -48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $124 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $220 −$218 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $131 +$169 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $169 +$281 +166%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $885 +$145 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $87 +$87 +100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $79 +$111 +139%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $316 +$384 +121%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $516 +$27 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $192 +$155 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $227 +$173 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $266 −$80 -30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $158 +$212 +134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $58 +$86 +150%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $272 −$268 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $125 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$128 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $69 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $378 −$373 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $220 −$216 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $114 −$112 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $137 +$163 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $107 +$125 +116%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $555 +$454 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $250 +$30 +12%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $109 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 100¢ $166 56m
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 44¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 24¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 24¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 29¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 41¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 15¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 15¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 15¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 15¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 15¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 15¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 15¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $340 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 58¢ $81 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $111 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 53¢ $64 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 52¢ $95 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $6 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $11 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $12 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $160 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $110 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $39 29h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 18¢ $1 29h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 18¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records