Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3fc5…51c1 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$3
other 37% −$2
sports 15% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
all 19 -2.6% -11.9% 21% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage136d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 13-19? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 09 $380 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $354 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $395 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 05 $384 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $382 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $399 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $727 −$1 -0%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 03 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 03 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 03 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $307 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $384 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $332 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 47d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 62d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 62d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 104d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 31¢ $3 107d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $380 125d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $380 125d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $354 126d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $354 126d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $395 129d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $19 129d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $395 129d
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $384 129d
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $384 130d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $382 130d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $382 130d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $398 130d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $399 131d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 131d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 131d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $360 131d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $360 132d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $367 132d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $367 132d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $307 132d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $307 132d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $383 132d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $384 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.10 · official $5.10 (match) · 49 history records