Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3fc3…ee0b
sports · 314 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$98 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$100 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses166 / 143
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)309 / 314
History coverage79d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 309 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$160
14 days+$253
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 46¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 23¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 34¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+86%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage FOKUS 64¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Alliance 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Monte 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 57¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner THUNDER dOWNUNDER 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 80¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 70¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 1 Winner Gaimin Gladiators 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs GamerLegion 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will a team get 13-0'd at BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) Monte 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage magic 42¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$26 +101%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $13 +$13 +99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +132%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$8 +51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $17 +$9 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$10 +103%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$12 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 +$12 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$4 +69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$10 +99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $22 +$23 +103%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $18 +$14 +76%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $15 +$15 +100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4 −$2 -41%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$6 +58%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$11 +219%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 +$11 +74%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $10 +$11 +112%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$11 +76%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$16 +103%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 +$12 +68%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $11 +$15 +141%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 07 $16 +$13 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$165
crypto 4% −$28
other 3% −$43
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $9 52m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 26¢ $8 52m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $10 53m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 40¢ $11 54m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $16 55m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 49¢ $25 6h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 66¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 100¢ $16 7h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) SELL MOUZ 99¢ $26 10h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 7¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 62¢ $10 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 49¢ $13 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $18 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $24 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $10 13h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $10 14h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $10 24h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $15 25h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 25¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $2 34h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $11 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $2 34h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $24 37h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $11 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $16 42h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $11 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +13.2% +2.4% 57% 56% +12.3%
≤30d 93 +30.1% +17.7% 59% 57% +9.7%
≤90d 309 +5.7% -4.4% 54% 51% -6.9%
all 309 +5.7% -4.4% 54% 51% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 51% -6.9%
10% -13.5% 50% -15.8%
15% -21.9% 45% -24.0%
20% -29.5% 35% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.36 · official $50.36 (match) · 593 history records