Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3fc1…00eb crypto 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$288 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%132W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$67
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$153
sports 3% −$142
weather 0% −$1
other 0% +$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -27.4% -34.3% 35% 30% -36.0%
≤30d 284 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 35% -13.3%
≤90d 309 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 34% -13.4%
all 309 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 34% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 34% -13.4%
10% -25.2% 28% -21.7%
15% -32.4% 22% -29.2%
20% -39.1% 19% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses132 / 177
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)309 / 311
History coverage64d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 33¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 18¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada Czechia 55¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$6 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$4 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$7 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$11 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $22 −$4 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$2 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$4 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $24 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $17 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.32 · official $11.51 · 1479 history records