Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3fc0…8cce sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$628 (+51%) realized +$638 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +113% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%25W / 7L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$400
other 35% +$315
crypto 8% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+93.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +113.4% +93.1% 78% 78% +59.3%
≤30d 32 +113.4% +93.1% 78% 78% +59.3%
≤90d 32 +113.4% +93.1% 78% 78% +59.3%
all 32 +113.4% +93.1% 78% 78% +59.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +93.1% 78% +59.3%
10% ← realistic here +74.6% 78% +44.0%
15% +57.8% 75% +30.1%
20% +42.3% 75% +17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +173% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.05 per $1 lost it wins $6.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$638
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses25 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 43
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 39¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Lionel Messi: 2+ goals AND Will Arg Jun 17 $10 +$42 +408%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$35 +137%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$41 +81%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$26 +510%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 +$39 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $163 +$105 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$105 +206%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$9 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$55 +90%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 +$22 +146%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$33 +33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$89 +291%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners AND Austria vs. Jordan: 2n BUY 44¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 59¢ $25 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 54¢ $51 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 14¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Argentina leading at halft BUY 18¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd BUY $26 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Lionel Messi: 2+ goals AND Will Arg BUY 19¢ $10 4h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $25 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $39 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $163 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 50¢ $20 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 12¢ $5 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 17¢ $20 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 32¢ $41 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 22¢ $36 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $15 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.39 · official $85.39 · 72 history records