Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3fc0…67a5 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+6%) realized +$72 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$163
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$91
other 28% −$3
crypto 21% −$24
world 3% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +52.7% +38.1% 100% 67% +59.9%
≤90d 9 +5.8% -4.3% 78% 22% -2.1%
all 14 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 14% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 14% -3.0%
10% -20.9% 14% -12.2%
15% -28.5% 14% -20.7%
20% -35.5% 14% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$64 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage160d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $276 $273 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $175 +$163 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $146 +$95 +65%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $170 −$167 -98%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 22 $22 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $247 −$24 -10%
Will Forces Cauris pour un Bénin Émergent (FCBE) win the most seats in Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of January? Feb 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $31 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.65 · official $272.65 (match) · 28 history records