Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3F 0x3fc0…d42f other 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,090 (-6%) realized −$1,066 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%85W / 81L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days+$130
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$538
sports 27% −$1,389
politics 9% +$121
crypto 5% −$210
culture 4% −$210
world 4% +$22
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.2% -15.2% 45% 36% +4.0%
≤30d 12 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 33% -2.0%
≤90d 12 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 33% -2.0%
all 166 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 43% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 43% -15.8%
10% -22.7% 35% -23.9%
15% -30.2% 25% -31.2%
20% -37.0% 13% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$50 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$967
Realized−$1,066
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses85 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)166 / 174
History coverage254d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $445 $461 +$16 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $309 $292 −$17 (-6%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 29¢ $32 $88 +$56 (+179%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $81 $63 −$18 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $69 $25 −$44 (-64%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-68%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $56 −$12 -21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $106 −$39 -37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 −$21 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $457 +$190 +42%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $33 +$17 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $31 −$21 -69%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Dec 06 $1,635 −$1,635 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 05 $132 +$8 +6%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $212 +$88 +42%
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Nov 30 $691 +$717 +104%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $49 −$40 -82%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 30 $1,562 +$142 +9%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Nov 30 $400 −$32 -8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $97 +$23 +24%
Will Empoli FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 29 $176 +$22 +12%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $265 +$166 +63%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Nov 29 $200 −$53 -26%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $421 +$49 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $210 +$21 +10%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $120 +$30 +25%
Will Manchester City vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Nov 29 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Nov 29 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $150 −$61 -41%
Will Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw? Nov 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Roma win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Nov 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $70 +$36 +51%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 28 $182 +$87 +48%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Nov 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Rangers FC vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Nov 28 $505 +$120 +24%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Nov 27 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Rangers FC win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $100 −$53 -53%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $100 +$56 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $62 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $309 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $235 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $44 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $66 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 22h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $59 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $457 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $22 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 5d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 6d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 6d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $966.75 · official $966.65 (match) · 626 history records