Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3F 0x3fbf…9c71 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,685 (+4%) realized +$1,689 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$986per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$760
7 days+$5,241
14 days+$5,241
30 days+$970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$35
other 33% +$5,415
sports 10% −$2,802
world 10% −$367
politics 1% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +40.4% +27.0% 67% 67% +33.0%
≤30d 6 -14.3% -22.5% 33% 33% -4.5%
≤90d 9 -5.3% -14.3% 44% 44% -5.4%
all 45 -12.6% -20.9% 38% 38% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 38% -5.3%
10% -28.5% 36% -14.4%
15% -35.4% 33% -22.7%
20% -41.7% 20% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,013) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$732 vs −$368 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$1,096
Realized+$1,689
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage170d
Avg bet$986
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,013 +$760 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 26 $947 −$27 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9,191 +$4,508 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $1,819 −$1,800 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $2,531 −$1,519 -60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,019 −$952 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 02 $1,500 +$717 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 09 $1,500 −$797 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 02 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 29 $2,000 +$518 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 29 $1,000 +$449 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 03 $1,000 −$233 -23%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 01 $2,000 −$271 -14%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 01 $500 −$129 -26%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $100 +$45 +45%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $196 −$92 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 07 $1,000 −$121 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 06 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 06 $300 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 06 $500 −$492 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 06 $1,000 −$293 -29%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 06 $500 −$61 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $1,000 +$722 +72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 05 $600 +$399 +66%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 05 $1,700 +$1,492 +88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $500 +$714 +143%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 04 $500 −$148 -30%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in February? Feb 02 $500 +$312 +62%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $3,476 +$695 +20%
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? Jan 29 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 26 $500 +$434 +87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jan 26 $699 −$72 -10%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $500 +$235 +47%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 25 $1,585 −$606 -38%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $250 −$74 -29%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $200 −$130 -65%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $100 −$85 -85%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $1,000 −$286 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 14 $500 +$377 +75%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $46 +$25 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $306 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $920 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,939 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 56¢ $1,013 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5,253 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1,819 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,012 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,531 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 63¢ $947 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 37¢ $1,068 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $2,019 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 66¢ $1,500 79d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? SELL No 31¢ $703 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $100 86d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? BUY No 63¢ $1,500 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $2,518 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 79¢ $2,000 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? SELL Yes 42¢ $767 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,000 117d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 69¢ $1,000 117d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,729 119d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? SELL Yes 29¢ $371 119d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? BUY Yes 40¢ $500 119d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,000 119d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho SELL Yes 100¢ $145 139d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $104 139d
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $300 139d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY Yes 69¢ $100 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,095.58 · official $3,312.67 · 114 history records