Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3fbd…c4e4 sports 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,492 (+6%) realized +$19,107 · open −$615
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%202W / 198L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$3,095est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$12,879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,670
other 21% +$378
culture 0% +$30
politics 0% −$41
tech 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.6% -22.7% 56% 17% -7.6%
≤30d 89 -30.8% -37.4% 42% 24% -10.4%
≤90d 383 -5.0% -14.0% 50% 39% -10.4%
all 400 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 38% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 38% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 30% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -28.2% 25% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$325 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$12,879
Realized+$19,107
Unrealized−$615
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses202 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$3,095
Open positions8
Markets (closed)400 / 409
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$787
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $6,465 $6,493 +$28 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5,246 $5,001 −$245 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,490 $1,137 −$353 (-24%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $220 $190 −$30 (-14%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $53 $50 −$3 (-5%)
Will Team Secret Whales win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $14 $2 −$12 (-82%)
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $370 +$70 +19%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3,992 +$694 +17%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $410 +$15 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $194 +$56 +29%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $98 −$97 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,525 −$112 -7%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $679 +$3 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $717 +$18 +2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $7 −$3 -35%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,330 −$32 -2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $117 +$7 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8,068 −$11 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,972 +$28 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $117 −$46 -39%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 18 $255 −$143 -56%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8,840 +$230 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8,860 +$39 +0%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $34 +$20 +59%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $355 −$3 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,176 −$5 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $79 +$21 +27%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $125 −$36 -29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $78 −$36 -47%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 15 $33 −$8 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $262 −$262 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $257 −$257 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 6m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 8m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 10m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 12m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 12m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 18m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $551 19m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 25m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 25m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 26m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 27m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 30m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 31m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 34m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $86 35m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 42m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $272 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,878.59 · official $12,878.59 (match) · 3500 history records