Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3fbd…bc3f
crypto · 1609 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$15 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1436 / 172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1608 / 1609
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1608 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$15
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 47% -8.9%
≤30d 393 -1.4% -10.8% 85% 63% -10.1%
≤90d 530 -1.7% -11.1% 86% 59% -10.6%
all 1608 -0.5% -9.9% 89% 22% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 22% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.36 · official $2.36 (match) · 3500 history records