Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fbb…42d6 tech 17 markets active 116d ago coverage 351d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,506 (-9%) realized −$3,485 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,381per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 100% −$3,533
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+81.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 16 +100.3% +81.2% 12% 12% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +81.2% 12% -36.0%
10% ← realistic here +63.9% 12% -42.1%
15% +48.0% 12% -47.7%
20% +33.5% 12% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +301% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
65.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17,579 vs −$2,762 · ×6.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,485
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage351d
Avg bet$2,381
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $4,629 −$4,629 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $4,020 −$4,020 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 18 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $3,788 −$3,787 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $2,796 −$2,796 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 14 $5,308 −$5,307 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 13 $7,685 −$7,682 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? Apr 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 10 $5,734 −$5,731 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 09 $900 +$26,319 +2925%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Mar 30 $489 −$488 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 26 $880 +$8,839 +1004%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 21 $912 −$911 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $617 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $228 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $70 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $107 116d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 116d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $44 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 116d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $6 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $66 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $7 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $4 116d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $30 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $58 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.28 (match) · 1177 history records