Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fbb…377a sports 112 markets active 235d ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,483 (+4%) realized +$4,484 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%46W / 65L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$940per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$37,265
economics 15% −$14,731
world 15% −$14,067
politics 8% −$2,158
tech 4% −$1,979
other 3% +$140
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 111 -14.3% -22.4% 41% 35% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 35% -5.7%
10% -29.9% 31% -14.7%
15% -36.6% 29% -22.9%
20% -42.9% 21% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,193 vs −$800 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4,484
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses46 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage191d
Avg bet$940
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 28¢ 15¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? Oct 22 $333 −$333 -100%
US recession in 2025? Oct 22 $485 −$2 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Aug 06 $27 −$9 -34%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Aug 06 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Aug 01 $179 −$134 -75%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 01 $108 −$76 -70%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 26 $2,587 −$1,703 -66%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 18 $91 −$53 -58%
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? Jul 18 $190 −$33 -18%
Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $3,097 −$3,097 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $9,411 −$9,411 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1,397 −$1,397 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $9,575 −$9,175 -96%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $5,614 +$4,151 +74%
Iran strike on Israel in June? Jun 13 $5,098 −$4,881 -96%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 13 $10,596 −$9,175 -87%
Pirates vs. Cubs Jun 13 $1,320 +$680 +52%
Yankees vs. Royals Jun 13 $1,116 +$884 +79%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 13 $1,160 −$40 -3%
Cardinals vs. Brewers Jun 13 $1,120 −$477 -43%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 08 $2,165 +$26 +1%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Jun 08 $173 +$65 +37%
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 02 $1,944 +$258 +13%
Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June? May 30 $77 −$3 -4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 30 $1,662 −$1,250 -75%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23? May 23 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 23 $41 −$20 -48%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 23 $104 +$294 +281%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during Framework Review speech o May 16 $2 +$8 +400%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 7+ times during his May 13 interv May 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon say "Grok" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Sau May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon say "China" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon say "DOGE" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon say "Neuralink" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon say "Saudi" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon say "Starlink" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $7 +$3 +35%
Will Elon say "Tesla" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Elon say "Humanoid" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $7 +$8 +108%
Will Elon say "xAI" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? May 14 $11 +$6 +59%
Will Elon say "A.I" or "Artificial Intelligence" 5+ times during Saudi May 14 $126 +$57 +45%
Will Elon say "Trump" 2+ times during Saudi-US investment forum on May May 14 $237 +$93 +39%
Will PDP win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 202 May 12 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Pric May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event? May 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event? May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event? May 12 $361 −$344 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? BUY No 25¢ $9 235d
US recession in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $9 235d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? BUY No 21¢ $53 251d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? BUY No 20¢ $120 251d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? BUY No 19¢ $151 251d
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 312d
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 312d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 317d
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? SELL Yes 1¢ $32 317d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 323d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 323d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 323d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 331d
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? SELL Yes 71¢ $157 331d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 24¢ $66 345d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 23¢ $37 345d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 345d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 347d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 347d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.51 · official $1.51 (match) · 987 history records