Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fbb…57ea crypto 301 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-4%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate33%100W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$25
finance 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 39% -20.5%
≤30d 61 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 36% -16.0%
≤90d 157 -7.7% -16.5% 32% 24% -16.2%
all 301 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 23% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 23% -15.3%
10% -23.8% 15% -23.4%
15% -31.1% 12% -30.8%
20% -37.9% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses100 / 201
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)301 / 301
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 301 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 744 history records