Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3fb4…0df5 politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 746d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-1%) realized −$44 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 39% −$90
politics 29% +$16
sports 24% $0
other 7% +$28
crypto 0% −$10
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 2 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 2 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 20 +26.2% +14.2% 55% 35% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 35% -10.2%
10% +3.2% 30% -18.8%
15% -6.7% 20% -26.6%
20% -15.9% 20% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

746d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage746d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 23¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1,599 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 17 $1,900 −$19 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 14 $500 −$71 -14%
Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 20 Feb 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Feb 14 $8 +$24 +300%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Feb 14 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 14 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will XRP flip ETH in 2024? Jan 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $500 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $400 −$1 -0%
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? Dec 17 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10? Dec 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Dec 09 $10 +$23 +233%
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4? Sep 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Manchester United sacks Erik ten Hag? Sep 09 $15 +$12 +79%
Senate control after 2024 election? Jun 08 $100 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,596 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,599 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 23h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 92¢ $1,748 123d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL No $133 127d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes $429 127d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes $500 127d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 255d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 255d
Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 20 BUY Yes 89¢ $5 255d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 474d
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 491d
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL No 100¢ $948 551d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $500 551d
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $399 551d
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? BUY No 78¢ $17 558d
Will XRP flip ETH in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $10 558d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? BUY No 62¢ $10 558d
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 558d
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $400 558d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $500 558d
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 558d
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 649d
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 649d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 30¢ $10 649d
Manchester United sacks Erik ten Hag? BUY No 56¢ $15 742d
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 742d
Senate control after 2024 election? SELL Republicans 73¢ $99 742d
Senate control after 2024 election? BUY Republicans 74¢ $100 746d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.14 · official $3.14 (match) · 44 history records