Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fb2…15e3 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 80% 60% -12.0%
≤30d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 80% 60% -12.0%
≤90d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 80% 60% -12.0%
all 15 +8.0% -2.3% 80% 60% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 60% -12.0%
10% -11.7% 53% -20.4%
15% -20.2% 27% -28.1%
20% -28.0% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $72 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $29 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $23 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $67 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $64 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records