Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3fb2…06ef crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+24%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +30.8% +18.3% 74% 74% +19.8%
≤30d 23 +30.8% +18.3% 74% 74% +19.8%
≤90d 23 +30.8% +18.3% 74% 74% +19.8%
all 23 +30.8% +18.3% 74% 74% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.3% 74% +19.8%
10% ← realistic here +7.0% 74% +8.4%
15% -3.3% 52% -2.1%
20% -12.8% 39% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records