Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fad…1834 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% +$3
other 19% $0
sports 17% $0
politics 13% −$3
crypto 7% $0
culture 7% $0
finance 5% +$1
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -3.7% -12.9% 26% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage288d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 88¢ $28 $31 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $4 −$1 -38%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Sep 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference? Sep 17 $30 $0 -1%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $49 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $49 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.80 · official $30.80 (match) · 154 history records