Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3fa5…4f56 sports 509 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,977 (+7%) realized +$15,981 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%345W / 160L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$300est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,713
7 days+$1,449
14 days+$1,168
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$13,653
other 33% +$1,278
crypto 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +10.7% +0.2% 64% 54% +6.5%
≤30d 81 -3.0% -12.2% 67% 44% -9.5%
≤90d 208 +4.2% -5.7% 73% 40% -4.5%
all 505 +10.0% -0.5% 68% 45% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 45% -3.6%
10% -10.0% 38% -12.9%
15% -18.7% 30% -21.3%
20% -26.7% 24% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$340 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1,703
Realized+$15,981
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses345 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$300
Open positions4
Markets (closed)505 / 509
History coverage153d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 84¢ 84¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 74¢ 74¢ $575 $571 −$4 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 90¢ 91¢ $420 $424 +$4 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 87¢ 88¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $402 +$84 +21%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $459 +$1,036 +226%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $547 +$72 +13%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $124 +$28 +23%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $508 +$492 +97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $336 −$333 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $499 −$491 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $127 +$147 +116%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $114 +$31 +27%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $204 +$457 +224%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $204 +$430 +211%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $612 −$600 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 23 $174 −$170 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $91 −$90 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $162 +$96 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $44 +$26 +60%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $693 +$27 +4%
Uzbekistan to win the second half? Jun 21 $72 −$70 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $74 −$72 -98%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $402 +$85 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $418 +$27 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $78 +$53 +68%
OC Safi vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: US Yacoub El Mansour 1st Half O/U 0. Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: RS Berkane 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $203 +$209 +103%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $875 +$28 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $613 +$105 +17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $603 +$103 +17%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $176 +$199 +112%
Qatar to win the second half? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,507 +$258 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $806 +$261 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $126 +$36 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $905 +$206 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $129 +$33 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $530 +$720 +136%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $904 +$171 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $503 +$130 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $804 +$138 +17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $506 +$301 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $30 +$28 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,235 +$32 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $632 −$617 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $361 +$52 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $128 +$43 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 84¢ $603 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $504 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $111 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $76 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $421 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 20¢ $205 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 20¢ $102 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $152 30h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $402 30h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $124 42h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $508 47h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $212 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $547 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $124 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $499 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 31¢ $306 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 32¢ $306 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 78¢ $114 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $204 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $204 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $92 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $91 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $162 4d
Uzbekistan to win the second half? BUY Yes $72 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 62¢ $44 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 17¢ $74 5d
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? BUY Yes $62 5d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $66 5d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $61 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,702.64 · official $1,702.64 (match) · 1040 history records