Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fa5…853c politics 96 markets active 2d ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$9
other 29% −$6
sports 23% −$3
economics 7% $0
world 5% −$5
culture 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -33.6% -39.9% 33% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 5 -24.0% -31.2% 20% 0% -11.6%
all 95 -11.6% -20.0% 14% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -27.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -34.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -41.1% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage356d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $62 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $153 −$2 -1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $133 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $64 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Feb 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $72 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $1 $0 -50%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $68 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $70 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $143 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $69 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $71 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $73 $0 -1%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 27 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Dec 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $75 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $74 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 43h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 19d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $61 19d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $62 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 35d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 103d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 103d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 103d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 105d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 105d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 107d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 107d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 107d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 108d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 111d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 111d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $62 113d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 113d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 113d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 115d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 117d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 117d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $61 117d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $61 120d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 120d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 122d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.94 · official $59.94 (match) · 347 history records