Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3fa5…d9f1
sports · 1590 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$33 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1577 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1585 / 1590
History coverage85d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 3 History 1585 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Owen Caissie: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lucas Glover finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Jonathan David: 2+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Park vs. Oh: Total Games O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Liam Millar: 1+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Liam Millar: 3+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Kihara vs. Doo: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Alistair Johnston: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Edin Džeko: 3+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rosie Pino be the Republican nominee for NJ-09? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC 0 - 1 Drogheda United FC? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Waterford FC 0 - 2 Sligo Rovers FC? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Vagramov vs. Miroshnichenko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 3 - 2 Maghreb AS de Fès? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: Kawkab AC (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Titan Esports Club vs One Coin - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Zeng vs. Zhu: Total Games O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Nedic (-1.5) vs Demin (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Neel/Olmos vs Haverlag/Lumsden Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bernet vs. Schlagenhauf: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bernet vs. Schlagenhauf: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Iakubenko vs. Mckennon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Shiraishi vs. Ogura: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Kim vs. Dellavedova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs NGNB (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Oh Hyeongyu: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Lee Kangin: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Lee Donggyeong: 2+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Hwang Heechan: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$9
other 48% +$20
world 1% +$3
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Owen Caissie: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 23m
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Lucas Glover finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Jonathan David: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Liam Millar: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Liam Millar: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Park vs. Oh: Total Games O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 2h
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Kihara vs. Doo: Total Games O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 2h
Alistair Johnston: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Ismaël Koné: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Edin Džeko: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC 0 - 1 Drogheda United FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Waterford FC 0 - 2 Sligo Rovers FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 4 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 100¢ $5 5h
Vagramov vs. Miroshnichenko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will Rosie Pino be the Republican nominee for NJ-09? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5) BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $5 7h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY Vitality 100¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 3 - 2 Maghreb AS de Fès? BUY No 100¢ $4 8h
Spread: Kawkab AC (-2.5) BUY OC Safi 100¢ $5 8h
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) BUY GenOne 100¢ $5 10h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 10h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 292 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 780 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1585 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 1% -9.1%
all 1585 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 1% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.48 · official $19.48 (match) · 3500 history records