Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fa1…7edf other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$10
world 26% −$4
other 22% −$5
culture 7% −$2
tech 6% −$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 34 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,060) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage84d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,110 −$2 -0%
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $1,193 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R Jun 22 $1,105 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $2,188 −$3 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th May 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the e May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? May 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $998 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? May 20 $36 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 18 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026? Apr 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 06 $23 $0 -0%
BitBoy convicted? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,183 20m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 29m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $14 35m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,131 44m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $22 55m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1,145 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,136 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $781 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $327 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,110 2h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $30 18h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 19h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $12 19h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 19h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $11 19h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $7 19h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 20h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $904 20h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $248 20h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 20h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,154 20h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 39h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R SELL No 100¢ $1,103 39h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 40h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY No 100¢ $1,084 40h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records