Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fa0…6843 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$2
crypto 22% $0
other 22% $0
politics 12% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -1.5% -10.8% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 39 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage307d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $14 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $33 +$2 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $30 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $24 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $4 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $28 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $26 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $4 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $30 41h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $34 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $35 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $35 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $33 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $29 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 32d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 32d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 287d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 289d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.08 · official $33.08 (match) · 119 history records