Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3F 0x3fa0…1362 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-7%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$1
tech 24% $0
politics 20% −$1
economics 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +3.6% -6.2% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤90d 6 -15.5% -23.5% 83% 0% -15.8%
all 6 -15.5% -23.5% 83% 0% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 0% -15.8%
10% -30.8% 0% -23.9%
15% -37.5% 0% -31.2%
20% -43.7% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage80d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 27 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.26 · official $15.26 (match) · 12 history records